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Political Impact of Modi’s Transformation

Political Impact of Modi’s Transformation

In two earlier  pieces,  Modi’s transformation of India using the twin pillars – choosing the right policies and then executing them well – was examined in detail. The impact on the ground is for all to see. It is in this context that news of the plot to assassinate Modi by extremists groups has come as a shocker. Undoubtedly it is a serious issue and reports have indicated that the police as well as the intelligence agencies are looking into this.

The plot itself was not unexpected given that two former Indian Prime Ministers have been assassinated. But it comes as a living reminder that country’s leadership continues to face threats from forces inimical to India – both within and outside the country. More importantly, this is symptomatic of the deeper churn in the political ecosystem ever since Modi became Prime Minister. It is worth pointing out here that many opposition parties, particularly the fringe elements, have been drumming up so much hatred and spewing venom that may it have directly or indirectly contributed to such plots. But that is for the police to determine.

Modi’s focus on “development”, besides unleashing the economy, has enabled him to wrest control of the political narrative and lay down a new set of agenda for India. Muslim appeasement has lost its sheen – particularly after the banning of “triple talak” thus endearing himself to millions of Muslim women. Also the absence of targeted attacks on minorities that many Cassandra prophesied has only aided the shifting of the narrative. In many ways, much of the angst of these entrenched anti-national elements can be sourced to their complete disappointment in the successes of the ruling establishment.

This shift in narrative has immense consequences. India is witnessing a slow migration from ghetto politics – a perverted brand of politics of pandering to minorities at the expense of the majority that has only fissured India for seven decades – to one dominated by performance, punctuated by key statistics and data on the economy. The ground reality is that it is sounding the death knell for many political careers and parties. A careful examination of changes occurring in the political campaigns seem to suggest the movement in that direction.

The Congress party, India’ largest opposition party in terms of organization and resources, has been forced out of office all states save one.  India’s very own grand old party with a long history is today reduced to a mere rump of their erstwhile past. The massive mandate in favor of Modi has created severe long term damages to the party. Their banding together with all and sundry – disparate and desperate parties has only degraded India’s opposition polity into a chaotic agglutination for whom political ideology has become nothing more than a disguise. This short sighted calculus to gain political power at any cost has been their undoing.

Their responses to the government’s “development first” agenda have been bizarre – from a mix of standard divide and rule gimmickry to engineering violent protests to create a false aura of deteriorating law and order situation. They talked about unending oppression of Dalits, repression of Muslims, denial of equal rights to women, refusal to share river water sources between states, linguistic chauvinism, and north versus south India and on and on. But all these time tested strategies seem to have fallen flat on their faces and only succeeded in leading them further into dark political wilderness. The people seem to have called the bluff.

Aiding the Prime Minister in building his massive support base, albeit unintended, is the almost complete lack of thought leadership in the opposition camp. Their only answer to his development programs is a dysfunctional opposition to anything and everything he does. They seem to have mistaken rabid Modi-baiting for strategy. Engineering street protests and attacks on Dalits and minorities is now misconstrued as political stagecraft. So rapid is the erosion of their support base that today Congress is not even confident of being elected in their “safest” constituencies despite all allurements to the voters.

This truth is that Modi’s mindshare of Indians is real. He has captivated different demographic segments by providing different programs that appeal to them. With his powerful engagement on social media he seems to have captured the imagination of the younger segments. They see the fruits of his initiatives – from sleek railway coaches to soil data cards for farmers – and have massively backed him.

The expectations of the people on delivery of developmental agenda is high and there is no going back. In every village people are talking excitedly about electrification or the introduction of new railway lines or the spanking new highway that snakes though their town. They have now seen and experienced for themselves how things can change fast. The most important learning for the people is that these massive public investments and welfare programs, if executed well under watchful eyes can swiftly impact their economic fortunes. That is the essence of Modi’s economic transformation.

The fall out on the political ecosystem is that many political careers will be ruined and we may never again see the faces of many politicians. Fringe elements, arguably the loudest anti-Modi voices and the most virulent anti-national forces, have been corralled and their sources of funds have been shut down, thanks to demonetization. For others, the writing on the wall is clear. Perform your duties as expected or exit the political life.

The focus on governance and development may have found a long awaited cure for anti-incumbency that ailed India for decades.  This does not mean that 2019 election will be a cake walk for the BJP or Modi himself. There is lot of unfinished work. More importantly, he has to step up his publicity machinery to bring to the attention of every Indian in every village what has been achieved in these four years.

Good governance and data on economy may provide fuel to debates and score brownie points on the television talk shows and may even win thunderous applause. But winning elections is another matter altogether. The 2018 elections in Karnataka shows that BJP has much work to do. But at least one thing is clear. The days of perverted appeasement politics is definitely over and seems to have had a quiet burial.

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INDIA’S TRANSFORMATION UNDER MODI – IMPLICATIONS

indianeconomy2The growth in the Indian economy has attracted a lot of attention. India has emerged as the fasted growing large economy, pipping China. It is expected to clock a GDP growth rate higher than 7.2% in 2018. Many international agencies that monitor key economies around the world have been sanguine in their projections on India.

A recent study published by UK based Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) states that India’s consistent GDP growth rate will push it to prominence in 2018. It has forecast that India will join the elite group of the top five largest economies of the world. This is a full year ahead of projections by International Monetary Fund (IMF) that India will make it to the top five in 2019.

India’s rise in global prominence has not come easy. In the last four years, Prime Minister Modi’s government has put in an unbelievable number of policy reforms and public investments in hundreds of projects that have borne fruit. This smorgasbord of reforms and investments have deeply impacted key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services like never before. The gamut of initiatives – many of which have longer gestation periods – will continue to deliver results over an extended time horizon

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A dispassionate analysis throws up three key pillars that have provided the bulwark for the emergence of the economy.  Firstly, Prime Minister Modi, shedding ideological baggage, has incorporated best practices in economic management that are pragmatic and more importantly, well suited for the country. This is indeed refreshing, since for many decades India was hamstrung by ill-advised ideological paradigms that only resulted in poor growth rates and endemic poverty.

Secondly and more importantly, we are witness to an unparalleled excellence in executing these economic reforms and policies. Modi’s personal leadership qualities – acquired mostly as Chief Minister of Gujarat where he was virtually baptized by fire – have played an important role. The recent inauguration (May 2018) of the smart Eastern Peripheral Expressway (EPE) is but one example of this mastery over execution. Built at a cost of Rs.11,000 crore in Delhi, this 135 KM long solar power lit expressway was completed in 18 months.

Thirdly, and most notably, the government has ensured that, at least at the political level, there is no corruption, pilferage or fraud. These have been the core secrets of the swift economic transformation we see today. It is well known that India’s track record in delivering government services, particularly welfare benefits to the poor has been dismal. Former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi is on record saying that for every rupee the government spent on welfare only 15% actually reached the beneficiary.

But Modi had stopped all that by directly transferring benefits to beneficiary’s bank account. According to data published by the government, welfare benefits of Rs.3,65,996 crores were directly transferred to beneficiaries’ accounts in the last four years (www.narendamodi.in). This is an example of Modi choosing the appropriate service delivery vehicle and executing it well in a given time fame.

Modi’s developmental paradigm and governance strategy are built around these three pillars. Hence his schemes and initiatives, just to name a few –   GST, Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC), recapitalization of public sector banks, unprecedented investments in national highways and railways, 100% electrification, transfer of welfare benefits directly to the beneficiaries’ bank accounts –  are runaway successes.

What is even more striking is the fact that the government has used existing laws, existing civil and administrative machinery, existing staff and officers to execute its vast number of projects. The same machinery has in many cases achieved the project objectives ahead of schedule without cost overruns.

Like all previous governments, Modi too had the low risk option of choosing reforms on a smaller scale that do not tend to rock the boat. But these changes would have yielded only incremental results or benefits that would have continued to keep India hostage to a pernicious low growth cycle, depriving huge sections of society a decent livelihood. But Modi apparently has taken a calculated risk and has instead, boldly opted to choose the transformation route, a high risk option, to achieve big results in as diverse areas as possible. The gamble, as seen from the optimistic projections by international institutions, seems to have paid off.

Many compare Modi’s transformation exercise to the reforms of 1991 initiated by the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao. Rao’s reforms were no doubt extremely critical for India then, but were more in the nature of a rescue mission. They were focused on deregulation and attracting foreign direct investments to shore up dangerously low levels of forex reserves. They were incremental and definitely on a smaller scale in comparison.

As already pointed out, Modi’s reforms are transformational. Further his efforts must be seen as part of a master plan that includes securing India from internal and external threats as well as forging bilateral ties with various countries around the world to deepen India’s trade and commerce. The truth is that both Rao and Modi have succeeded in untethering the native economic sinews of the country.

Despite the din, distorted and mostly negative reporting in the media, Modi’s developmental agenda has the backing of large sections of society. For them the economic resurgence passes the smell test, at least anecdotally. For instance, in high growth states like Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, there is a noticeable absence of beggars on the streets or on railway platforms. Long gone are the days when people could not afford footwear or wore torn clothes. The so called ‘trickle down’ effect which was a just a dribble for several decades, now seems to be drenching vast sections of poor people. Of course this is not to gainsay the fact that poverty continues to pervade vast sections of society in many states.

The economic survey for 2018 has highlighted the strengths of economy. But it has also warned of potential risks and threats to the economy, both internal and external that need to be carefully watched. However, the good news is that key statistics and relevant data point to continued robust growth in the economy. Modi’s biggest achievement seems to be the setting up of right the ecosystem via a conducive policy environment, infrastructure building and massive public investments that has since unleashed the economy.

The silent changes that are sweeping across the country– mostly at the lowest levels of the economy – are creating huge impact on the very fabric of India – economically, politically and socially. The enthusiasm and expectations of the people – particularly the under 35 demographic segment that forms over 60% of India – seem be scaling up.

The clamor for corruption-free and swift delivery of government services – be it provision of electricity, sanitation, public health services or any service for that matter – is ratcheting up. While citizen experience is positive, this may not be a welcome change for the political ecosystem in India.

Modi’s iron will and mastery of execution is unmatched across the whole political spectrum in India today. He has given India a new mantra to the political class- perform or perish. He has set the bar for performance high enough that many in the current political scene may not be able to achieve. This probably explains the collective hatred seen for Modi among his political opponents and their proxies. But the impact of Modi’s transformations will continue to reverberate for years to come.

 

 
 
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